Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
